A worried investor analyzing Bitcoin price charts on a computer screen in a modern office
The hottest topic in the cryptocurrency market is undoubtedly whether the Bitcoin season is ending in the second half of 2025. As Bitcoin falls below $100,000, anxiety is rising among investors. Determining whether this decline is a simple correction or a signal of a full-blown bear market is crucial for investment strategy. Let’s analyze the current market situation together.
Understanding the Concept of Bitcoin Season End
Bitcoin season end refers to the point when the cryptocurrency market’s bull run ends and transitions into a full-blown downtrend. Unlike simple price corrections, season end signifies a medium to long-term trend reversal that can last more than a year, not just weeks or months.
After the November 2021 cycle, Bitcoin experienced approximately an 80% decline in value and took nearly two years to recover. During season end periods, investor fear psychology spreads rapidly, leading to large-scale capital outflows.
Properly judging season end is critical for portfolio management. Failing to cut losses at the appropriate time can result in losing a significant portion of investment capital over the long term. Conversely, misjudging a simple correction as season end leads to unnecessary realized losses.
Analysis of Bitcoin Status in the Second Half of 2025
A financial analyst examining technical indicators on large screens in an advanced trading room
The Bitcoin market in the second half of 2025 is under significant pressure. Bitcoin recently fell below $100,000, giving back gains to the 150 million won range for the first time in four months. Since the all-time high recorded in March 2025, it has declined approximately 17%, increasing investor concerns.
According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin closed October in negative territory for the first time in seven years. This is particularly noteworthy given that October has historically been a favorable month for Bitcoin.
From a technical analysis perspective, the 50-week and 100-week moving averages on the BTC weekly chart are important indicators. The current price is moving between these two lines, and which line it moves relative to will likely determine the medium-term trend.
From a market sentiment perspective, movements by large institutional investors like MicroStrategy and signals of capital outflows from retail investors are being detected, requiring attention. Particularly, the decline in stock prices of cryptocurrency-related companies listed on NASDAQ reflects overall market sentiment.
Signals Suggesting Season End
Several signals suggesting the end of the Bitcoin season in the second half of 2025 are being captured. The most notable is the collapse of key support levels. As major technical support levels that many investors were watching break down, concerns about further declines are growing.
Worrying signals are also detected in trading volume. A pattern of volume surging during price declines is appearing, suggesting that investors are quietly exiting the market. The overall decline in trading activity is also a precursor to season end.
Not only Bitcoin but altcoins including Ethereum are showing concurrent weakness. The phenomenon of altcoins that rallied with Bitcoin falling more sharply is a signal confirming overall market weakness.
Macroeconomic risks also cannot be ignored. External factors such as tariff issues between the U.S. and China and concerns about federal government shutdowns are negatively impacting the cryptocurrency market.
Particularly noteworthy is the selling activity by long-term holders. Large holders who have held Bitcoin for years are executing repeated sales at certain price levels, creating strong resistance at market tops.
Reasons Why the Season Hasn’t Ended Yet
Despite negative signals in the Bitcoin market, it’s still too early to conclude that the Bitcoin season is ending in the second half of 2025. Above all, the $70,000 resistance level still holds significant meaning. Sustained demand following spot ETF approval continues, showing strong support at this level.
There are also positive signals from the mining infrastructure perspective. 2025 has more mining machines online than ever before, strengthening the Bitcoin network’s security. This is an important factor in maintaining long-term ecosystem health.
The deepening institutional entry is also noteworthy. Institutional investor interest continues to grow steadily, and the ETF market continues to expand. This is a factor that increases the stability and trustworthiness of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Additionally, there are still many unrealized profit holders. They still have many profit realization opportunities ahead, making it unlikely that large-scale selling pressure will appear all at once.
Finally, according to the halving cycle theory, supply reduction due to decreased mining rewards can act as upward price pressure. Historically, Bitcoin has maintained an upward trend for 12-18 months after halving events.
Season End vs. Retail Shakeout: Practical Distinction Methods
There are several ways to distinguish whether the Bitcoin decline in the second half of 2025 is a season end or simply a ‘retail shakeout.’ First, trading volume patterns must be analyzed. By comparing volume at peaks with current volume, the severity of capital outflows can be assessed. During season end, a clear pattern of increased volume during declines appears.
The position of moving averages is also an important indicator. By examining the relationship between long-term moving averages (50-week, 100-week) and the current price position, trends can be identified. When price falls below these long-term moving averages, it is interpreted as a bearish signal.
The possibility of resistance level re-breakthroughs should also be noted. Tracking patterns of repeated selling and rebound attempts at specific price levels helps predict future direction.
On-chain data verification is also essential. By monitoring large wallet movements and exchange inflow/outflow status, the movements of large investors can be identified. Increased stablecoin inflows to exchanges can be a signal of returning buying pressure.
Finally, market psychological state can be confirmed through the Fear-Greed Index. It’s important to determine whether oversold levels have been reached and whether rebound signals are appearing.
Investment Strategy in the Current Situation
In the uncertain situation of whether the Bitcoin season is ending in the second half of 2025, investors need a cautious strategy. First, reducing position size is safer. Setting clear stop-loss lines to manage risk and gradually adjusting positions is advisable.
It’s also important to set target values for the next upward wave in advance. Through wave counting, predict how high a rebound can reach and prepare a corresponding selling plan.
Continuously monitoring the correction range is essential. Observe how far the current decline will continue and to what level recovery will reach during rebounds to judge future market direction.
Asset allocation strategy should also be reviewed. Adjusting Bitcoin allocation and increasing stablecoin holdings is a way to diversify risk. Securing cash can also allow for buying opportunities during further declines.
Finally, it’s good to establish a dollar-cost averaging plan. A strategy of entering gradually during downtrends to lower average purchase price can be employed. For example, consider dividing total investment into five stages of 20% each.
Precautions and Monitoring Points
To determine whether the Bitcoin season is ending in the second half of 2025, several precautions must be kept in mind. Above all, limit orders for stop-loss are essential. As can be seen from cases where past forecasts were wrong, it’s important not to be swayed by emotions and to stick to predetermined stop-loss lines.
Short-term volatility must be prepared for. Since sharp declines due to fear psychology and technical rebounds are likely to repeat, it’s best not to react too sensitively to one or two days of movement.
Minimizing the impact of external news is also important. While macroeconomic situations and policy changes can affect markets in the short term, long-term trends are more influenced by technical factors and on-chain data.
Expert opinions should not be blindly trusted. In situations where various forecasts conflict, it’s important to make your own judgment based on objective data. It’s good to develop a habit of directly checking data using analysis tools like Bitvise.
Regular checkups are also essential. Update technical signals and on-chain data monthly to reassess the situation and modify strategies as needed.
The Direction of the 2025 Bitcoin Market
Looking at the current situation comprehensively, Bitcoin in the second half of 2025 appears to be a mix of adjustments and institutional capital outflows rather than a full season end. The key variable that will determine future direction will be whether the $70,000 level is re-breached.
Response methods should differ by investor type. New investors should focus on observation for the time being, while existing holders should focus on strengthening risk management.
From a medium-term perspective, the possibility of a rebound after adjustment appears higher than a complete end to the 2025 bull market. Considering historical patterns after halving and the continued inflow of institutional investors, the possibility of a prolonged downtrend is relatively low.
It’s important to prepare a flexible strategy that can respond regardless of which direction the market moves, and above all, maintain emotional stability. Volatility always exists in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets, and investment plans that account for this are necessary.
